Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 02 2020 | 838 | 18306 | 6 | 116 | 159 |
| September 03 2020 | 860 | 18448 | 6 | 132 | 173 |
| September 04 2020 | 882 | 18487 | 6 | 145 | 183 |
| September 05 2020 | 905 | 18880 | 6 | 157 | 199 |
| September 06 2020 | 941 | 18958 | 6 | 173 | 219 |
| September 07 2020 | 977 | 19101 | 6 | 197 | 249 |
| September 08 2020 | 1000 | 19162 | 6 | 210 | 263 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.4% | 3 | 0.03% | 4 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 7.3 | 27.1% | 57 | 0.42% | 61 | 0.45% |
| 20-29 | 12 | 13.3 | 55.7% | 117 | 0.56% | 148 | 0.71% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 1.1 | 4.3% | 9 | 0.07% | 15 | 0.11% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.4 | 5.2% | 11 | 0.11% | 15 | 0.14% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.4 | 2.4% | 5 | 0.04% | 9 | 0.07% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.9% | 4 | 0.03% | 4 | 0.03% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.6 | 1.9% | 4 | 0.04% | 7 | 0.07% |
| All ages | 23 | 25.0 | 100% | 210 | 0.2% | 263 | 0.25% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 02 2020 | 354 | 12230 | 0 | 53 | 70 |
| September 03 2020 | 364 | 12288 | 0 | 62 | 76 |
| September 04 2020 | 371 | 12430 | 0 | 67 | 78 |
| September 05 2020 | 376 | 12489 | 0 | 64 | 83 |
| September 06 2020 | 378 | 12547 | 0 | 55 | 77 |
| September 07 2020 | 382 | 12585 | 0 | 51 | 80 |
| September 08 2020 | 385 | 12648 | 0 | 43 | 81 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 02 2020 | 375 | 7504 | 3 | 15 | 30 |
| September 03 2020 | 381 | 7547 | 3 | 21 | 33 |
| September 04 2020 | 382 | 7578 | 3 | 21 | 33 |
| September 05 2020 | 385 | 7652 | 3 | 21 | 30 |
| September 06 2020 | 388 | 7695 | 3 | 23 | 28 |
| September 07 2020 | 392 | 7695 | 3 | 23 | 32 |
| September 08 2020 | 393 | 7701 | 3 | 23 | 32 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 02 2020 | 5564 | 165861 | 40 | 476 | 640 |
| September 03 2020 | 5639 | 166901 | 40 | 522 | 684 |
| September 04 2020 | 5799 | 167619 | 40 | 638 | 801 |
| September 05 2020 | 5961 | 168233 | 40 | 752 | 908 |
| September 06 2020 | 6118 | 169345 | 40 | 824 | 1030 |
| September 07 2020 | 6208 | 170307 | 40 | 878 | 1091 |
| September 08 2020 | 6427 | 170482 | 40 | 1040 | 1266 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.4% | 15 | 0.02% | 19 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 147 | 74.3 | 55.4% | 576 | 0.81% | 621 | 0.87% |
| 20-29 | 55 | 36.7 | 28.4% | 295 | 0.28% | 384 | 0.37% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 6.1 | 5.7% | 59 | 0.08% | 87 | 0.11% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 3.3 | 3.2% | 33 | 0.05% | 50 | 0.08% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 3.3 | 2.8% | 29 | 0.04% | 51 | 0.08% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2.7 | 2.1% | 22 | 0.04% | 32 | 0.06% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1% | 11 | 0.02% | 22 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 219 | 129.6 | 100% | 1040 | 0.19% | 1266 | 0.23% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 02 2020 | 77129 | 1191548 | 1142 | 6667 | 9636 |
| September 03 2020 | 77856 | 1199999 | 1146 | 7002 | 9623 |
| September 04 2020 | 79354 | 1210203 | 1153 | 7862 | 10295 |
| September 05 2020 | 80300 | 1217278 | 1168 | 8040 | 10291 |
| September 06 2020 | 81193 | 1221894 | 1168 | 8055 | 10731 |
| September 07 2020 | 81760 | 1226793 | 1168 | 7779 | 10906 |
| September 08 2020 | 82477 | 1230159 | 1168 | 7677 | 10985 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 11 | 21.1 | 2.5% | 195 | 0.03% | 291 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 209 | 161.3 | 17.8% | 1365 | 0.18% | 1703 | 0.22% |
| 20-29 | 186 | 219.0 | 25.8% | 1979 | 0.26% | 2855 | 0.38% |
| 30-39 | 76 | 101.7 | 12.9% | 987 | 0.13% | 1484 | 0.2% |
| 40-49 | 53 | 98.0 | 11.7% | 900 | 0.13% | 1349 | 0.19% |
| 50-59 | 74 | 111.4 | 13.3% | 1024 | 0.13% | 1493 | 0.18% |
| 60-69 | 60 | 71.1 | 8.9% | 687 | 0.09% | 1023 | 0.14% |
| 70+ | 48 | 58.1 | 7% | 540 | 0.08% | 787 | 0.12% |
| All ages | 717 | 841.9 | 100% | 7677 | 0.13% | 10985 | 0.19% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.1 | 70.7 | 25 | 11.6 | 11.2% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.5 | 5 | 5.4 | 7.2% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 3 | 2.9 | 8.6% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.2 | 37 | 129.6 | 47.4 | 13.3% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.9 | 37.1 | 841.9 | 703.1 | 11.3% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 23.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.35 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-09-29 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1253"